AIFS ENS TC tracks

AIFS, IFS and OpenIFS AIFS
1

Hi

Is there a plan to produce TC track files for the AIFS ensemble similar to

s3://ecmwf-forecasts/20250706/12z/aifs-single/0p25/oper/20250706120000-240h-oper-tf.bufr?

Many thanks

2

Hi Peter,

We are planning to produce the TC tracks for AIFS ENS, but we don’t have the definite timeline yet.
What we know is that we will make the plots available first, and the BUFR files will come later.
All I can say is it should happen in the coming months, but there is not definite date.

Best regards,
Milana Vuckovic

3

Hi Milana,

Any update on when thew TC tracks from AIFS ENS will be available?

Best regards,

Rabi Rivett

4

Hello everyone! I’m also looking forward to it. Is there a timeline for the release now

5

Hello,

Unfortunately, we still don’t have the definite date.
It will most likely be implemented towards the end of this year, or at the beginning of next year.

I will post here when I know more.

6

Hi Milana,

Do you have an update on this?

7

Hello,
The aim is to introduce the TC tracks from AIFS ENS in the version 2 which will be updated in May, however it is not certain at this moment that this will be implemented.

As soon as we know something for certain, we will update the AIFS ENS v2 implementation page: Implementation of AIFS ENS v2 - Forecast User - ECMWF Confluence Wiki

Best regards,
Milana

8

Hi all,

Today I can confirm that we will be producing the Tropical Cyclone tracks from the AIFS Ensemble version 2, both as graphical products and as raw BUFR files.

The test data is already available in the test dissemination system, as well as in MARS archive.

More info on the AIFS ENS v2 Implementation page: Implementation of AIFS ENS v2 - Forecast User - ECMWF Confluence Wiki

Best regards,
Milana

9

Hi all,

Thank you for this great news regarding the availability of this new TC forecasts.

I noticed that on the AIFS-ens test data available on the open data server ( ECMWF Free & Open Data Portal ), there is currently no Tropical Cyclone BUFR file, whereas one is already present in the equivalent “ifs” directory.

I read through the implementation web page provided above but couldn’t understand if the AIFS-ens TC BUFR files will be available on the open data platform for all users, or will access be restricted to the limited set of partner users ?

Alternatively, is this simply because the TC BUFR output is considered a post-processed product, and will therefore only become available following the operationalisation of Cycle 50r1?

Thanks in advance for your clarification.

Best regards,
Adrien C.
Météo-France, La Réunion — RSMC for Tropical Cyclones